Current developments and assessments of macroeconomic subjects

The past year 2021 was strongly influenced by global developments in the wake of the COVID 19 pandemic. The rapid rebound of the global economy in light of of hopes of an endemic phase occurring soon, caused a mid-year surge in economic indicators and stock markets. However, it resulted in increasing supply problems and supply-side production bottlenecks in the second half of 2021. The resulting rise in raw material and energy prices, coupled with monetary policy support measures by some central banks, led to a significant increase in inflation in various economic regions at the end of the year. The economic recovery slowed and the previously euphoric expectations on the stock markets dimmed.

At the beginning of 2022, the war in Ukraine shook the global community. Great uncertainty about the global economic and social impact spread and led to extreme distortions on the markets. Energy prices in particular increased dramatically, massively amplifying the rise in inflation and leading to inflation rates of up to 8% in some leading economies.

In Switzerland, the average expected inflation rate for 2022 is comparatively low at 2.7%. The lower energy intensity of the Swiss economy, the further appreciation of the Swiss franc, the already very high price and wage levels, and the fact that supply bottlenecks have relatively little impact on prices can serve as explanations.

The further impact of the war in Ukraine on the global development of the economy remains open. As it is impossible to predict whether the conflict will end soon, uncertainty on the global markets is also likely to persist until further notice.

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