IFBC UpDate – Market Report
Current developments and assessments on macroeconomic subjects
COVID-19 led to a distinctive economic downturn, which was followed by an unprecedented recovery within short time in the first half of 2021. After only five quarters, the most important economic indicators are set on green and rank on all-time highs. Globally, the stock markets are rising, the order books are full, the unemployment rates are decreasing and the growth forecasts are positive.
Tremendous governmental economic stimulus packages and the continous expansionary monetary policy are important preconditions for the economic turnaround. Ongoing vaccination progress, an increase of technological change and an unbroken demand from the consumers are nevertheless the main drivers for the global recovery.
As one of the most important early indicators for economic activity, the Purchasing Managers’ Index PMI shows a very remarkable trend. He boomed since beginning of the year, climbing to absolute all-time highs in Switzerland as well as in several other countries.
Real GDP growth rate Switzerland
Purchasing Managers’ Index as per 31.07.2021
In addition to the positive outlook with heavily improved business orders a very high purchase demand for restocking the inventories is observed. Global sourcing processes are challenged with non-granted availabilities of parts and components, longer production and delivery terms and massive higher purchase and freight costs.
The question remains, if the economic recovery is sustainable and how long it will take to widely overcome the COVID-19 crisis.
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